Radiation modeling of microplasma UV lamps for design analysis and optimization.

Microplasma UV lamps have recently emerged as viable excimer-based sources of UV radiation, garnering significant attention during the recent COVID-19 pandemic for their use in disinfection applications because of their ability to emit human-safe far-UVC (200-240 nm) spectrums. An accurate model to simulate the radiation profile of microplasma UV lamps is of paramount importance to develop efficient microplasma lamp-implemented systems. We developed a 3D numerical model of microplasma UV lamps using the ray optics method. The simulation results for lamp irradiance and fluence rate were experimentally validated with standard optical radiometry and actinometry measurements, respectively. To improve the optical efficiency of microplasma lamps, an in-depth analysis of radiation behavior inside the standard commercially available lamp was performed using the geometrical optics method, and several potential scenarios were explored. A 2D modeling of an individual microcavity indicated that the current common lamp design can be significantly improved by preventing radiation loss, and small modifications in optical design can greatly increase the energy performance of the system. Based on the findings of this study, several virtual design concepts were proposed, and their performances were numerically compared with that of the original design of commercial microplasma lamps. The developed model can potentially be integrated with hydrodynamic and kinetic models for the virtual prototyping of complex photoreactors operating with UV microplasma lamps.

Assessing Indoor Air Quality and Ventilation to Limit Aerosol Dispersion—Literature Review

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of indoor air quality (IAQ) and ventilation, which researchers have been warning about for years. During the pandemic, researchers studied several indicators using different approaches to assess IAQ and diverse ventilation systems in indoor spaces. To provide an overview of these indicators and approaches in the case of airborne transmission through aerosols, we conducted a literature review, which covered studies both from before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We searched online databases for six concepts: aerosol dispersion, ventilation, air quality, schools or offices, indicators, and assessment approaches. The indicators found in the literature can be divided into three categories: dose-, building-, and occupant-related indicators. These indicators can be measured in real physical spaces, in a controlled laboratory, or modeled and analyzed using numerical approaches. Rather than organizing this paper according to these approaches, the assessment methods used are grouped according to the following themes they cover: aerosol dispersion, ventilation, infection risk, design parameters, and human behavior. The first finding of the review is that dose-related indicators are the predominant indicators used in the selected studies, whereas building- and occupant-related indicators are only used in specific studies. Moreover, for a better understanding of airborne transmission, there is a need for a more holistic definition of IAQ indicators. The second finding is that although different design assessment tools and setups are presented in the literature, an optimization tool for a room's design parameters seems to be missing. Finally, to efficiently limit aerosol dispersion in indoor spaces, better coordination between different fields is needed. © 2023 by the authors.

Transmission of droplet aerosols in an elevator cabin: Effect of the ventilation mode.

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has threatened public health. Owing to the relatively sealed environment and poor ventilation in elevator cabins, passengers are at risk of respiratory tract infection. However, the distribution and dispersion of droplet aerosols in elevator cabins remain unclear. This study investigated the transmission of droplet aerosols exhaled by a source patient under three ventilation modes. Droplet aerosols produced by nose breathing and mouth coughing were resolved using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. We adopted the verified renormalization group (RNG) k-ε turbulence model to simulate the flow field and the Lagrangian method to track the droplet aerosols. In addition, the influence of the ventilation mode on droplet transmission was evaluated. The results showed that droplet aerosols gathered in the elevator cabin and were difficult to discharge under the mixed and displacement ventilation modes with specific initial conditions. The inhalation proportion of droplet aerosols for air curtain was 0.016%, which was significantly lower than that for mixed ventilation (0.049%) and displacement ventilation (0.071%). The air curtain confined the transmission of droplet aerosols with the minimum ratios of inhalation, deposition, and suspension and is thus recommended to reduce the exposure risk.

Multiphase Compartment Models of Distribution of New Coronavirus Infections

A fundamentally new multiphase compartmental mathematical model for predicting the spread of several waves of coronavirus infection has been developed. Quality indicators in comparison with existing single-phase models are analyzed. The developed model will allow to model several waves of the process of spreading new coronavirus infections, to predict the process of loading the medical system, as well as the needs for staff, equipment and hospital beds during pandemics. © 2022 IEEE.

Did the Tokyo Olympic Games enhance the transmission of COVID-19? An interpretation with machine learning.

BACKGROUND: In the summer of 2021, the Olympic Games were held in Tokyo during the state of emergency due to the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. New daily positive cases (DPC) increased before the Olympic Games, and then decreased a few weeks after the Games. However, several cofactors influencing DPC exist; consequently, careful consideration is needed for future international events during an epidemic. METHODS: The impact of the Olympic Games on new DPC were evaluated in the Tokyo, Osaka, and Aichi Prefectures using a well-trained and -evaluated long short-term memory (LSTM) network. In addition, we proposed a compensation method based on effective reproduction number (ERN) to assess the effect of the national holidays on the DPC. RESULTS: During the spread phase, the estimated DPC with LSTM was 30%-60% lower than that of the observed value, but was consistent with the compensated value of the ERN for the three prefectures. During the decay phase, the estimated DPC was consistent with the observed values. The timing of the decay coincided with achievement of a fully-vaccinated rate of 10%-15% of people aged <65 years. CONCLUSIONS: The up- and downsurge of the pandemic wave observed in July and September are likely attributable to high ERN during national holiday periods and to the vaccination effect, especially for people aged <65 years. The effect of national holidays in Tokyo was rather notable in Aichi and Osaka, which are distant from Tokyo. The effect of the Olympic Games on the spread and decay of the pandemic wave is neither dominant nor negligible due to the shifting of the national holiday dates to coincide with the Olympic Games.

Modeling the Virus Infection at the Population Level.

As pointed out by many researchers in the last few decades, differential equations with fractional (non-integer) order differential operators, in comparison with classical integer order ones, have apparent advantages in modeling. A Caputo fractional order system of ordinary differential equations is introduced to model the virus infection at the population level in this chapter. As well known, there are two main methods to study the dynamics of a model: qualitative analysis and numerical modeling. Here the qualitative analysis, including uniqueness, invariant set, and stability, is first presented with intuitive derivation. Then the famous genetic algorithm is introduced to numerically model the dynamics of virus infection, i.e. to adjust the parameters of the Caputo fractional model such that its solution can properly fit real data and predict future.

Modeling the Flow Dynamics of the Ostreavent™II using Scilab

The global pandemic declared by the WHO in March 2020 made urgent the need for an affordable adult ventilator for the Philippine market. An existing low-cost infant ventilator developed by Dr. Enrique Ostrea Jr was redesigned and upgraded into one suitable for adult use. A team of Doctors, Engineers, and Technicians was gathered to work on the project. The team was tasked to develop a low-cost, pressure- and volume-controlled ventilator suitable for adult and infant use in the shortest possible time. A model of the ventilator was created using the simulation software Scilab. The model was used to predict its behavior and guide the design of the ventilator. Experiments were conducted to validate the results from the model. It was found that the model satisfactorily predicted the dynamics of the flow inside the ventilator. The modeling and validation activities helped us build the new low-cost ventialtor in less than four months. © 2021 IEEE.

Problems of Building A Mathematical Model of Epidemic Taking into Account Vaccination

The paper considers the description and analysis of mathematical models of the spread of infectious diseases, the construction of a mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, based on the models under consideration, numerical modeling of mathematical models of the spread of the disease with real statistical data and comparison of the mathematical models considered in this paper. © 2021 IEEE.

Design of a nonlinear model for the propagation of COVID-19 and its efficient nonstandard computational implementation.

In this manuscript, we develop a mathematical model to describe the spreading of an epidemic disease in a human population. The emphasis in this work will be on the study of the propagation of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Various epidemiologically relevant assumptions will be imposed upon the problem, and a coupled system of first-order ordinary differential equations will be obtained. The model adopts the form of a nonlinear susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered system, and we investigate it both analytically and numerically. Analytically, we obtain the equilibrium points in the presence and absence of the coronavirus. We also calculate the reproduction number and provide conditions that guarantee the local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria. To that end, various tools from analysis will be employed, including Volterra-type Lyapunov functions, LaSalle's invariance principle and the Routh-Hurwitz criterion. To simulate computationally the dynamics of propagation of the disease, we propose a nonstandard finite-difference scheme to approximate the solutions of the mathematical model. A thorough analysis of the discrete model is provided in this work, including the consistency and the stability analyses, along with the capability of the discrete model to preserve the equilibria of the continuous system. Among other interesting results, our numerical simulations confirm the stability properties of the equilibrium points.